DAY 18: UNCERTAINTY

I am Bengain, and this is not my real name. I haven't found anyone to talk about my journey in the world of business with, so here I am. and the story is [here]..


Good evening.. How was your day?.. Sometimes we do things that end up destroying everything we've built. The library where I work adopted a friend's eco-friendly project a while ago, which involved placing separate bins for different types of waste: one for paper, another for plastic, and a third for metals, to collect and recycle them.. And what do you think happened?.. The janitor emptied all the bins into one bag! (smiling).. We can imagine the manager's reaction when he sees that!.. I believe even the bins themselves could have a reaction!

How many times in your life have you done something and you weren't sure about it?.. How did you feel when making the decision.. What is your feeling as you await the results.. Let me talk to you today about this matter as it is something I had to get used to while embarking on this journey.

As you may recall, we talked on the first and second days about how startup projects are usually about seeking solutions to previously unaddressed problems. We mentioned that these problems are sometimes not fully understood by these individuals, so they research and discover them gradually. In the process, they work on proposing and developing solutions in the hope of reaching a stable business model that achieves profitability in the end. and we said that the project I am working on can be categorized under this type of work.

From the above, we can observe that the working conditions the founders are dealing with are not entirely clear to them.. In fact, they contain a high level of mystery that doesn't just stem from the problem they are trying to solve but also from many other factors related to the work as a whole. For example, they don't know if the customers will accept and like the solution, if they are willing to pay for this solution, if they can assemble a high-quality team, what their qualities are, how to manage them, where they will get the funds, whether investors are interested in this problem, if their mindset aligns with that of the investors, if the timing is right for this solution or if it's too early or late for the market, how the market conditions will change, if other technologies are expected to emerge that would make this solution outdated and unsuitable for the future.. The truth is, there are many, many of these questions (in almost everything) for which you cannot directly get answers, making the decision-making process harder than usual.. And here, the founder finds himself in a state of "uncertainty", which almost accompanies him throughout his journey until reaching that desired stable model.. As you know, any wrong decision can completely take you out of the game!

Isn't the pressure overwhelming!.. The truth is that pressure doesn't only stem from the nature of the activity (like a startup project) undertaken by the founder alone, but also from the nature of the founder themselves and their ability to deal with the situation. This is something I experienced personally (smiles). Before working on my project, I was one of those who usually leaned towards ensuring the validity of their decisions before taking action (as I told you in the previous day) and often inclined to neutralize pressure when working on tasks I wanted to accomplish, especially those requiring somewhat innovative solutions. Tight deadlines are usually not comfortable for me. I strive for perfection when completing a task. I don't like asking questions to understand things, but rather compensate for it by researching what I want to know on my own or through intensive observation of the matter.. Sometimes, I used to do things based solely on my personal perspective and vision. As a former athlete, I naturally hate losing, and I also hate even considering it as an option. As you can see, these thoughts and beliefs were not the best for dealing with uncertainty; some even made things worse, a realization that gradually dawned on me while working on the project.

To address this, I started researching what successful people do in such situations and found some interesting things that have contributed and continue to contribute to making my approach to this uncertainty more positive than before. I also believe it is beneficial for anyone in the business world to take a closer look at them for the potential impact they can have, whether on their professional or personal future.. Let's briefly discuss some of these key points. Let's list them in simple points or headings for easier understanding, as follows:


Manage your expectations. If you are interested in the business world, you may have heard this term repeatedly, which means setting logical and realistic expectations for what we want to achieve and what it entails, and managing the relationship between those expectations and our work wisely. The idea here is that when we do any work, we build it according to many expectations in various aspects of this work, and often, these expectations are exaggerated (more like dreams than reality), Consequently, when they are not met, we experience a great disappointment that discourages us and hinders our progress. In the case of startup projects, the impact of this point is greater for two reasons: first, we lack sufficient data (uncertainty) to ensure the utmost accuracy in our decision-making, hence we tend to have higher expectations; second, these projects are often driven by the dreams of the founders to achieve something. As you can see, the wider the gap between our expectations and the actual results, the greater the pressure. At this point, I found that successful individuals try their best not to exaggerate their expectations, especially in situations where they are not entirely sure of their decisions.. Some even build their work based on expectations lower than what they could actually achieve in reality!

Pressure cannot be eliminated; it must be dealt with accordingly. This is one of the beliefs that I have found successful individuals adopt in the business world, especially in startup projects, and they act accordingly. We cannot always prevent investors from monitoring and executing our company's performance and plans, nor can we shorten the time required to understand the problem or the time and effort needed to test it. We also cannot control the customers' reactions, competitors' ambitions, or legislators' beliefs, nor can we shirk our responsibilities towards all of these.. Here, as we truly realize, uncertainty is one of the things we cannot change as well, and it is an inherent part of the business world and startups. Accepting it, like the previous things, greatly alleviates the pressure caused by it.

Test things quickly. This idea seems logical, and we sometimes use it in our daily lives, but in the business world and startups, it is a priceless concept. Simply put, the best way to verify something is to test it, and doing so quickly saves time, effort, and resources that could be wasted on something that doesn't work. It also helps to receive genuine feedback that reduces uncertainty and enhances the quality of our decisions. For example, we expected that people don't like to wait long for a taxi, and we wanted to create an app to help them get one whenever they want. So, we simply ask them before starting anything. If they like the idea, we proceed with it; if not, we look for another solution or problem. We expected that the service request button in this app should be in the middle of the screen, so we test it as well, and so on.. As you can see, they try to verify things as quickly as possible when facing uncertainty and then base their decisions on that.

It's not about you, it's about your customers. This is one of the magical beliefs in the business world, especially for those starting a business. The idea here is that when we build a product or service, we are actually building it around the customers because they are the target audience, not building it according to our own desires. This relieves pressure on us (as founders) as it shifts us from relying on ourselves and our ideas when making decisions to relying on what the customers actually want. This then shifts the focus of the work to constantly seeking feedback as the foundation of the work, reducing the likelihood of our decisions being wrong or disconnected from reality, and thus less pressure, especially in cases of uncertainty.. The idea that the work or project is not revolving around us also reduces this pressure!"

Start small and evolve according to feedback. This idea is an extension of the series of thoughts and beliefs adopted by successful individuals, focusing on feedback as the basis for developing projects and businesses. Simply put, it suggests that the earlier we begin developing work based on feedback in the early stages of the project's life, the more the product or service we offer will align with what customers want. The importance of this concept lies in reducing waste in resources during product or service development and testing, saving time, and increasing the likelihood of success in the market, among other outcomes. One of the crucial aspects, and one that concerns us, is addressing uncertainties through testing and feedback from the start, thereby increasing the chances of our subsequent decisions being correct.

Failure is the most logical possibility. yes, it's that simple. I have found that successful individuals fully accept this idea, which reflects reality, as failure, as we mentioned before, is the essence, whether for the project as a whole or in its development. By embracing this idea, they alleviate the pressure they face during work and decision-making compared to if they believed in the inevitability of their success. This helps them persevere in solving problems and, consequently, increases their chances of success.

A decision based on complete knowledge is a very late decision. In cases of uncertainty, and as I used to do, the intuitive choice for most of us is to wait until we obtain new information that supports the decision we will make. But how much time will that take? What about the competitors in the meantime?.. This is precisely what this idea is about – if we postpone making decisions until we are completely sure, we may lose some competitive advantages and market opportunities, like missing out on being the first to launch a product in the market.. Another question, what if we wait until we are 100% convinced of a decision and then it turns out to be wrong? A bigger problem, isn't it?.. Here it is important to note that not all decisions are made this way; some may lead to significant losses and require careful consideration!

We have all failed. This point differs from the previous one in that I have found that most successful individuals have experienced previous failures (here I am talking about the project level as a whole, not just decision-making). In fact, they always try to convey this message to businessmen and new entrepreneurs, as it is crucial in skill development, knowledge building, and gaining experience to achieve future successes. I even heard from one of them that 90% of entrepreneurs who succeed in their first project fail in their second project.. By the way, even successful individuals, during their successful projects, try out projects that fail, then try others, and so on, like Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom and his company Artifact.. One very successful businessman in our region mentioned during a discussion that up to that day (at the time of the interview), he had experienced around 28 failed projects!.. The presenter told him he had reached 32!!


These are the main points that are on my mind right now.. As you can see, most of what I used to do or believe in was indeed making things more difficult.. The word "difficult" might not be the most appropriate here; I think I can say that it was making things "heavier".. But with time, and as I increasingly accept these ideas and beliefs, I began to see in this situation (uncertainty) and in experimentation as a valuable opportunity to test ideas, businesses, and gain a deeper understanding of people, markets, and projects in general. Of course, with full belief that one, like anyone else, must do their utmost to succeed in the matters they strive for, but if otherwise happens, it's not the end of the world in any case!.. By the way, you will find that "uncertainty" is one of the most enjoyable aspects of the business journey.. especially while awaiting what will happen!

We indulged today in the conversation, isn't that so... but it's a beautiful topic that only those who experience it can truly appreciate, and that's why I wanted to share it with you. I hope it will be beneficial for me and you. I also hope that the dish my mother prepared for me today is one of my favorite dishes because I have a strong desire to eat (smiling).


I hope you always remain in good health,

and have a good night,